DENT: Has the Spring Fired?

A Wyckoff Investor’s Playbook for Patient Snipers

▶️ Watch the full analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHmf1oDwHQA

TL;DR: Dent looks like classic Wyckoff Accumulation (Schematic #1): price/time capitulation, a spring with fast recovery, and smart-money footprints (RSI divs, OBV stair-steps, monthly MACD turn). Two near-term paths: (1) Running Flat → hold the 100-DMA and reclaim the 21/50-DMA for upside expansion; or (2) Expanded Flat → brief undercut/test into the lower quadrant before launch. For investors: accumulate in the lower quadrant, sell only into expansion above range highs, and ladder both in and out.

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The Wyckoff Lens (quick refresher)

• Cycle: Bull peak → Bear price-based capitulation → Time-based sideways box.

• Schematic beats: PSY → SC → AR → ST → (UT/failed breaks) → Phase B tests → Creek → Spring → Test → LPS → SOS & Jump → Backup → Expansion.

• What matters: Sideways = absorption. CO buys weakness, sells into strength, then springs the range to vacuum remaining supply.

Why Dent Fits the Pattern

• Brutal capitulation: ~90%+ from highs (price filter ✔).

• Long box: ~1,200 days of sideways (time filter ✔).

• Spring behavior: New-low sweep → fast reclaim (speed = signal).

• Structure call: DENT = Schematic #1 (true spring). XRP’s famous base was closer to Schematic #2 (no new low).

CryptoNerd Opinions

Our Top 5 Beliefs

1. The market underprices time. Multi-year bases store energy; when they go, they over-shoot.

2. Spring speed > wick length. Rapid re-acceptance into the box = absorption tell.

3. OBV over price at lows. Rising OBV floors during sideways = stealth accumulation.

4. Buy boredom, sell expansion. Expansion is for distribution, not entries.

5. Confirmation is a funding event. Reclaim of 21/50-DMA with 100-DMA held = green light to add, not “start”.

Alpha Triggers We Care About

• Trigger A (Continuation): Daily close above 21 & 50-DMA while the 100-DMA holds; OBV higher low; RSI > 50.

• Trigger B (Test & Go): Quick undercut of 100-DMA into lower quadrant, immediate reclaim (spring test).

• Trigger C (Range Escape): Clean SOS/Jump above range high on rising volume → begin laddered distribution.

De-risk Conditions

• Weekly acceptance below spring low + OBV breaks higher-low structure.

• Breakout that fails back into the box on rising supply (SOW near top).

Positioning Map (not financial advice)

• Investor: 60/30/10 ladder in the lower quadrant → add on Trigger A → ladder out into expansion.

• Swing: Starter on pullbacks to 100-DMA; add only on daily acceptance above 21/50-DMA; stop = close back below 100-DMA.

• Sniper: Track 3-Day; buy LPS after spring test with OBV confirmation; partial at prior range high.

Narrative Angle

• Forgotten bases re-rate when liquidity rotates. Clean Wyckoff + obvious invalidations = flows chase cheap momentum.

The Two Working Scenarios

1) Running Flat (bullish continuation soon)

• See: 100-DMA holds; daily close above 21/50-DMA with acceptance.

• Implication: Test complete → expansion leg. Treat range-high breakout as SOS/Jump; ladder profits.

2) Expanded Flat (deeper test, same thesis)

• See: Brief shake under 100-DMA into lower quadrant (spring test).

• Implication: Same box; final absorption, then markup.

Smart-Money Footprints (supporting signals)

• Weekly RSI: Higher lows vs. price → bullish divergence.

• OBV: Step-up floors despite sideways → accumulation tells.

• Monthly MACD: Up-cross with rising histogram → macro momentum.

• Pattern feel: Diamond-bottom at lows → expect chop & fakeouts pre-break.

Investor Playbook

1. Where to buy: Lower quadrant.

2. How to buy: Ladder; never all-in.

3. When to add: On Trigger A (21/50 reclaim + 100 hold).

4. Where to sell: Into expansion (SOS/Jump). Ladder out.

5. Mindset: Accumulation is engineered to exhaust you. Stick to plan.

Chart Checklist (TradingView)

• TFs: Monthly, 4-Month/2-Month, Weekly, Daily/3-Day.

• MAs: 21 / 50 / 100.

• Indicators: RSI (14), OBV, MACD (monthly).

• Markups: Box the range; tag SC/AR/ST; mark spring + test/LPS; draw creek & jump.

• Fibs (log): Peak → trough for 61.8%; watch 2.786 / 4.236 for stretch.

Final Word

Dent’s base is a patience trade and a process trade. Execute the plan: buy boredom in the box, add on confirmation, distribute into expansion. That’s how CO plays; that’s how we play.

Not financial advice. Do your own research and position size responsibly.